Viewpoint

Regional Prosperity Party leaders need to regain autonomy—and rescue Ethiopian democracy

Ruling politicians now serve at the whim of the party leadership, in particular the chairman.

Since the diminishment of its status within the federal government in 2018, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been a party of righteousness.

That statement comes from someone who always disliked their leadership.

One of the most strategic decisions the party has ever made was its refusal to join the Prosperity Party (PP) late last year. If it had not made that decision, Tigray region could have become a battleground—similar or worse than Oromia Region and Wolayta Zone recently.

And, had the party joined PP, Chairman Abiy Ahmed could have removed or reshuffled the former TPLF leadership and replaced them with his own loyalists—such as Nebiyu Sihul Mikael—who may have faced strong opposition in Tigray, as do some PP officials in Oromia.

Some supporters of the Prime Minister and players in PP, as well as in the military, are old regime sympathizers. Daniel Kibret, advisor to the Prime Minister, said he believes the nation-building process Menelik II started is incomplete and because the  “elephant”, referring to Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front  (EPRDF), was the problem but is now gone, he believes it will be completed under Prosperity Party in the next few years.

These people believe Ethiopia was a great country when Orthodox priests used to start parliamentary meetings with prayers until the EPRDF destroyed the country’s image and divided Ethiopians along ethnic lines.

Hence, they feel it is their responsibility to reverse that at any cost.

For example, Kassaye Chemeda, ex-Derg General and Abiy cheerleader, claimed Derg really never lost the war to TPLF, and stood by patiently while the party robbed the country. Moreover, after Hachalu Hundessa’s murder, he suggested security forces shoot protesters in the head on national television—and that’s exactly what took place in eastern Oromia last month. He also said it’s possible to wage and win a war against TPLF and Tigray region easily.

Therefore, had PP installed puppets in Tigray, any protests opposing the merger would most likely have received a harsh federal response.

One-man show

These dynamics help explain why many politicians, analysts and activists have been voicing their concerns about the direction of the prime minster and his party ever since PP was established last year.

Despite its own challenges with inclusivity, the EPRDF was still a coalition of independent regional political parties.

Legally, EPRDF could not interfere in internal affairs of member political parties according to article 11(5) of its bylaws. Of course, this was not true in practice, mainly because of the cowardice of member parties, but legal protection was still there had any party wanted to use it. Unlike PP bylaws, EPRDF bylaws Article 7(1a) stated the front was a union of independent political parties and is not organized by recruiting individuals.

It is essential to understand the importance of this legal protection with respect to the change that took place two years ago.

The ability of Lemma Megersa, then leader of the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO) and Gedu Andargachew of the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) to stand up to EPRDF and demand change in late 2017 demonstrates the need for autonomous regional parties.

The pair were protected from illegal interference in the internal issues of regional parties because of the EPRDF structure. This is not the case for the merged party. PP is instead structured to resemble a private company, and so limits protections to middle managers—or, in this case, branch chairpersons.

The party consists of a Head Office in Addis Ababa, which is run by the prime minister and regional branches of the party. Local branch managers and branch employees serve under the discretion of the head office. Regional state leaders who serve as local branch managers are appointed and can be removed at the chairperson’s whim.

One may argue that regional presidents are elected by regional party members and are safe so long as they have the support of them. However, the Prime Minister can manipulate that support, as is shown by his former chief of staff running Oromia and his ex-national security adviser sitting at the head of Amhara’s government.

Should he want any regional president or party leadership removed, he can exploit gaps in the bylaw that allows him to remove party members who are supportive of the leadership he wants ousted. One way is using disciplinary action according to a vague sub-article, 14(1)(a).

The other is to threaten them by withholding finances and resources as there is no article as to how resources are used or funds allocated fairly among the different offices.

The recent removal of high-level officials in Oromia is a perfect example of this, and should serve as a lesson.

Lemma, Milkessa Midega and Teyba Hassan were removed from the central committee of the party’s regional branch. With due process any member can be removed from the party leadership or membership. This is because a political party like PP is a private institution with its own rules and procedures.  However, the removal of these individuals is mainly for not subscribing to the ‘medemer’ political philosophy of Abiy. No other explanation was provided by the party. So, they were removed from party leadership apparently primarily because they did not please Abiy.

This demonstrates why so many now serve at the prime minister’s discretion.

Ethiopian lives matter

Abiy’s one-man, centralized approach is dangerous for modern Ethiopia.

This is especially so as Ethiopians are accustomed to ethnic federalism and an imperfect, decentralized government for the past 27 years. I do not believe any of the nations, nationalities and peoples of Ethiopia asked for, or will tolerate, such leadership.

The Prime Minister does not seem to understand the country and the people he is leading. At this time when ethnic nationalism is at all-time high, and demands for autonomy are coming from all sides in the south, including Kaffa, Hadiya, Wolayta, Gamo, South Omo, Gedeo, Gofa, Bench Maji, Dawro and Silte zones, attempts to centralize government are folly. His rigid and delusional attitude is costing Ethiopian lives, mostly in Oromia and Southern Nations regions.

If he continues with this approach, it will cost even more.

Abiy seems committed to what he calls “nation building”, and has said that “however many dies, we will continue what we started.” in a speech he made in parliament after the unrest that cost many lives of Oromo protesters at the hands of security forces. The danger of this statement needs no explanation. He recently hinted that he knows he will be blamed now, and it will boil even more in the future, for the “bamboo seed” he’s planting—but everybody will understand once he is finished.

Surely the killings, arrests and burning down poor farmers’ houses are parts of the seed he was talking about. He seems to be drawing a comparison between himself and Menelik II, who waged war on Oromo and other peoples’ nations in the service of building modern Ethiopia. In that respect, he seems to feel some sadness the same way one feels sad when slaughtering chickens.

He seems to believe the resistance that exists today in many parts of Oromia and southern Ethiopia is an incomplete legacy of Menelik II, and he plans to finish it. Menelik II is despised by many Ethiopians, but praised by Amhara elites who are in position of relative privilege because of his policies and governments that favored ethnic Amhara and native Amharic-speaking Orthodox Christians.

A lack of comprehensive written records detailing the atrocities of Menelik II have resulted in an absence of the killings and slavery from the collective memories of many Ethiopians. Today, however, we record everything on video and in photographs.

Salvaging democracy

As mentioned, the TPLF decision not to join the PP is one of its best yet.

The fact that Tigray is peaceful—and just autonomously held a successful regional election—without the federal government’s interference is due in part to being heavily armed as we saw in recent marches by Tigray special forces with artillery, and because the TPLF refused to join PP. Now, the Tigray government is operating somewhat independently from the central government, deciding to carry out a regional election, despite Abiy’s government warning against it.

The reason other states have not done similarly is partly because they will face consequences from their party if they do.

At the moment, all nine other states and two city administrations are led by PP governments, over which Abiy has plenty of control. There is no genuine state government independence, nor is there separation between government and party. Often, we see party officials doing government work (just as under EPRDF), such as interfering in matters of justice. The Prime Minister, for example, recently criticized Jawar Mohammed’s request for substitution of the presiding judge over his case citing lack of impartiality. In the same speech, he also hinted at agreement with prosecutors on denying bail, saying judges are bought. Oromia officials made accusations and legal threats against opposition representatives even before arrests were made.

Some PP Oromia office members who disagreed with this kind of misconduct or refused to participate are now removed. In Wolayta, leaders of the zone were dismissed and replaced by PP cadres, according to activist Ashenafi Kebede, and that led to mass arrest of protesters. Any regional PP office is therefore likely to be subjected to similar treatment in the future if it steps out of line.

The upshot of all of this is that Regional PP officials need to act as soon as possible to save their party and Ethiopian democracy. They need to make sure that their respective parties are autonomous by requesting amendments to the party’s bylaws so that the organization does not revolve around the individual at the top.

Abiy’s main motivation to dismantle EPRDF and form PP may have been because sister parties did not have voting privileges and were not represented in the executive committee and the central committee of the EPRDF. It’s true any member can be elected to the committees, but there is no well-defined proportional regional party member participation in the regular council, which is responsible for electing the central committee, which in turn elects the executive.

Sub-articles 17(4) and 17(11) of the bylaws offer vague instructions for the representation of members in the regular council:

It’s possible the PP office with the most members irrespective of the population of the region to control the general council, the central committee, and the executive committee. This may create the exact problem the people in the Southern Nations region have been and are struggling with: decisions by party organs may be imposed on a region that does not have a real say in the decision. That may include membership cancellations and removal from positions.

Regional leaders may trust Abiy to do the right thing today, but there is no guarantee he will tomorrow, given the deceptive behavior we have seen so far, or that he will remain in power for long. They need to ensure autonomy and well-defined proportional participation and decision-making powers, as well as fair use of resources for their parties.

At this moment, any regional party member or leadership is vulnerable—and the best way to secure their position is to try and please Abiy.

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This is the author’s viewpoint. However, Ethiopia Insight will correct clear factual errors.

Editors: Henry Levinson, William Davison

Main photo: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed with Oromia president Shimelis Abdissa; 21 September 2019; PMO.

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About the author

Bekele Erko

Bekele is a nuclear physicist at Wayne State University in Michigan, U.S.. He specializes in high energy experimental nuclear physics. Follow him on Twitter @BekeleErko

13 Comments

  • We should not rest until we remove ethnic ownership of any state in Ethiopia. The current generation cannot tell the difference between real public administration and ethnic activism.

    Imagine the first requirement to be an officer in your local Kebele is to identify as one tribe instead of your civic administrative knowledge. So a dummy with a Facebook account who talks all day about ethnic stories gets the job instead.

    In an ideal world, an Oromo who grew up in Mekelle should be able to run for a local office if he has the actual public administrative knowledge to prosper the city. Merits should matter more than tribe. That is why you need prosperity not liberation fronts.

  • I would like to start off by thanking ethiopia-insight for giving the opportunity for everybody to express his/hers opinion on the issues of Ethiopia.

    This article is filled with out-right lies, innuendos, mis-characterizations and — for lack of a better term — bullshit. I’ll go over it as much as I can.

    Since the diminishment of its status within the federal government in 2018, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been a party of righteousness. (LOL)

    Despite its own challenges with inclusivity, the EPRDF was still a coalition of independent regional political parties. (LOL)

    Legally, EPRDF could not interfere in internal affairs of member political parties according to article 11(5) of its bylaws. (LOL plus the writer used PP’s bylaws thinking we won’t look)

    mainly because of the cowardice of member parties, (yea cause the story of Alemayehu Atomosa and countless before him was used as a lesson by TPLF)

    However, the Prime Minister can manipulate that support, as is shown by his former chief of staff running Oromia and his ex-national security adviser sitting at the head of Amhara’s government. (Both of this happened when EPRDF was still in existence not PP and Meles used to that as well so ur point is null)

    However, the removal of these individuals is mainly for not subscribing to the ‘medemer’ political philosophy of Abiy. No other explanation was provided by the party. So, they were removed from party leadership apparently primarily because they did not please Abiy. (so they didn’t subscribe to the party’s political ideology and that means they didn’t please the president of the party(LOL)? Imagine a republican saying I don’t believe in conservatism or a democrat saying I don’t believe in liberalism, or any member of EPRDF or even TPLF saying I don’t believe in revolutionary democracy…the same thing would have happened b/c a political party is the execution arm of the political ideology it follows)

    This is especially so as Ethiopians are accustomed to ethnic federalism and an imperfect, decentralized government for the past 27 years (LOL..was it imperfect..yes was it decentralized absolutely not, when Alemayew Atomsa decided to follow the constitution and not succumb to intimidation he was poisned, when the former president of the Gambella region decided to do the same he was arrest etc…there are countless examples of the TPLF/EPRDF murdering, exiling, arresting regional heads and even regional councils b/c they didn’t do as told — the biggest one the Somali region, since the establishment of the federation it’s on it’s 10th regional president and at one time the TPLF arrested the entire regional council)

    Abiy seems committed to what he calls “nation building”, and has said that “however many dies, we will continue what we started.” (This is — again — a mis-qoutation what he said is “so long as we live no one will destory the country, if any one wants to destroy the country they will have to destory us 1st however many of us dies” so stop lying)

    All those surely’s, he seems blah blah are again all mis-charatacterizations and outright lies.

    The fact that Tigray is peaceful—and just autonomously held a successful regional election—without the federal government’s interference is due in part to being heavily armed as we saw in recent marches by Tigray special forces with artillery, and because the TPLF refused to join PP. (first off I don’t think you know what artilery is, cause there was no artilary in that march or the video you attached and second off Tigray is peaceful b/c unlike the rest of Ethiopia opposition parties there are not agitators and don’t act like a cobbled up, undiscipled loud mouths hell bent on causing conflict and then recording the results. The other reason is b/c TPLF has not dropped it oppresive ways and is still doing it there in Tigray. You are basically repeating what they used to say during their rule as EPRDF “Unlike the rest of the horn of Africa Ethiopia is stable and peaceful”…and we all know why)

    The Prime Minister, for example, recently criticized Jawar Mohammed’s request for substitution of the presiding judge over his case citing lack of impartiality. In the same speech, he also hinted at agreement with prosecutors on denying bail, saying judges are bought. Oromia officials made accusations and legal threats against opposition representatives even before arrests were made. (again innuendo, mis-characterization and out right lies. and in regards to the impartiality of the courts and judges, just go to the ethiopia reporters last wednesday paper — or even the new post on ethiopia insight — in which Jawar clearly stated and thanked the court, the judge and even the federal police for their professionalism and impartiality.)

    As you can see from the comments on this piece as well as the last meeting the regional PP offices had, people have been critising it left and right for basically being EPRDF without the name.

    Finally, I understand that ethno-nationalist elites wanted Abiy to do what they wanted instead of what he promised, if you want to know what he is doing and will do just go to youtube and see his first speech infront of the HoPR, the rest was just piled on to him — even though he did embrace it. I find it funny how they immediately converted to saying even the TPLF didn’t do this, didn’t do that etc — again another outright lie — just b/c they can’t get out of their own narrow ethno-nationalist desires.

  • Federalism was based on a coalition of regional parties and a consensus government, allowing regional self-rule. On the other hand, PP centralizes authority at the top and expects loyality and subordination. And so, it was only logical that TPLF refused to disolve itself out of existence and accept subordination in PP. And this was happening in a very hostile political environment where TPLF was being blamed for federalism and everything else. However, in a public opinion survey reported a few days ago in Addis Standard, 61% of Ethiopians surveyed embrace a federal system – a vindication for TPLF and its defense of federalism.

  • Full of cherry picking and flawed assumptions. TPLF won 100% of the seats for the Tigray region parliament. Is this a good example to follow?

  • Just so the writer can look into his piece and share his views again:
    1) The TPLF election that happened in defiance of the Federal Government and the HoF has resulted in a 100% victory for TPLF. Is this what the author is advising PP regional officers to mimic?

    2) The TPLF was not removed because Lemma Megersa and Gedu Andargachew were independent decision makers in their respective parties. Rather, it was because they heroically fought for their people against the dangerous TPLF controlled and dominated security agents. In fact, they put their lives at risk. Denying the risk they took and portraying EPRDF as a coalition of independent parties each having full autonomy is an insult to the Ethiopian people’s intelligence. The EPRDF was dominated by the TPLF and none of the constituent parties, other than the TPLF, was autonomous. So, the author must get his premises right before advising PP regional officers.

    3) Isn’t it true that TPLF was the worst that happened to Ethiopia? At least to the understanding of ordinary citizens of Ethiopia. Anyone who is not a historian and didn’t study history would be tempted to lie if they talk about what happened circa 150 years ago Ethiopia glossing over the evils of the EPRDF is disingenuous. As given in his profile, the author is a physicist and not a historian. So, there is enough reason to believe that the author jumped in the band wagon of the anti Minilik II mantra.

    4) Emperor Minilik II might have done all or part of the bad things that his haters blame him for. What those people do not understand or refuse to understand is that was they way leaders all over the world led their countries at the time. Measuring the evils done in the 19th century Ethiopia with the “political yard stick” of the 21st century is inappropriate incongruous. Given the opportunity that Minilik II had, people who blame Minilik II would have done the same or worse. They should ask themselves whether they had the opportunity to do better than what Minilik II allegedly did if they existed in 19th century Ethiopia?

    • The 4th point raised really caught my eyes and im really intrigued here. Most of the Minilik supporters deny left right and center that he done messed up things towards the other nationalities in Ethio. The Oromo and other nationalities do not want to compare him to today’s leadership. He done things to stay in power and in the only way possible at that time, all we saying is he done such things to us and therefore do not deny he’s acts, u have the right to view him as your hero but to us its not possible for us to view him the same way thus he is our enemy. For he is our enemy do not force us to see him the same way you see him.

      That might not be the voices of every nationalitirs but it is of the Qeerros

      • BEKELE
        If all what you whine about had happened as you would like everybody believe, it must have happened at the hands of Oromo war leaders since the king’s generals (then called Rases) were Oromos. So, people like you are throwing sharp boomerangs that will come to haunt you. Enough said.

  • Thank you sir for your Great analysis.Abiy is acting as a leader chosen by god as emperor Hailesilasie.his friend ship with autocratic Eritrean leader Isayas Afewerqi is great shame to Ethiopian people as the latter has no vision on democratization & development.what is more disturbing is that back ward Amhara intellectuals seem to support Abiys ambition to be the seventh king as his mother told him.

  • Moving from the TPLF animated EPDF party to PP is like recovering from deadly pestilence. only to reinfected by colera in term of inherent, corruption, authoritarianism, lies and deception
    It’s the two sides of the same coin with minor differencrs, among others, it took the TPLF-EPRDF over few years to wear off the trust of the public and hatch its
    true devious political scheme while Abiy and his PP creation is trying to run quickly over the political ladder before even learning how to crawl first .What the TPLF doing now is not necessarily love for democratic notion of or elections ( it absurdly alleges to 99% again) but a coincidence in part and self–preservation on the other. Besides, an amateur thief can’t easily outsmart and a hardened veteran one because he knows full well the process and impending tricks.
    BTW, there is saying that goes show me your real companions and I w’ll tell your character or personality. The point is what Abiye was thinking when the likes of Chauvinist and rapid religious extremism like Daniel Kibret is his inner-circle and trusted close advisor. Folks it is forgone conclusion. The Emperor has no clothes.

  • Moving from the TPLF animated EPDF party to PP is like recovering from deadly pestilence. only to reinfected by colera in term of inherent, corruption, authoritarianism, lies and deception
    It’s the two sides of the same coin with minor differenced, among others, it TPLF-EPRDF over years few to wear off the trust of the public and hatch its
    true political scheme while Abiy and his PP creation is trying to run quickly over the political ladder before even learning how to crawl first .What the TPLF is doing not necessarily love for democratic notion but a coincidence in part and self–preservation on the other. Besides, amateur thief can’t easily outsmart and a hardened veteran one because he knows well the process and impending tricks.
    BTW, there is saying that goes show me your real companions and I w’ll tell character or personality. The point is what Abiyeas wad thinking when the likes of Chauvinist and rapid religious extremism like Daniel Kibret is his inner-circle and close afviser? Its foregone conclusion folks.

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