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The Blue Revolution shows the way forward
For decades, Eritreans have endured President Isaias Afwerki’s dictatorial rule, known for its repression, human rights violations, and denial of freedoms. Beyond such abuses, the regime has contributed to instability in the Horn of Africa by arming belligerents and attacking neighbors.
To put a stop to this, collective action is needed to bring regime change and lay the foundation for a democratic future in Eritrea.
A major problem hitherto has been that the regime in Asmara has manipulated public perception by creating an atmosphere of fear and isolation. It has presented Eritrea as a nation besieged by external enemies—ranging from Ethiopia and the TPLF in Tigray to the U.S. and its Western allies.
The regime has ingrained in the minds of Eritreans, both at home and abroad, the narrative that their country faces constant threats from these powers, which allegedly seek to undermine Eritrea’s sovereignty. Furthermore, it has instilled animosity among Eritreans towards others, particularly Tigrayans and Amharas.
Simultaneously, the regime has portrayed Eritrea as a peaceful oasis in the Horn of Africa, free from violence or tribalism, and attributes this to non-interference from foreign powers. It takes pride in Eritrea’s sovereignty, earned through armed struggle, not granted by external actors.
For years, Eritreans have internalized this narrative, taking pride in their sacrifices for Eritrean sovereignty, rather than focusing on the regime’s ongoing human rights abuses since 1991. Academics show how the narrative of Eritrean history produced a culture of nationalism through the glorification of the martyrs.
The regime has kept the Eritrean people from engaging with what it calls historical enemies by labeling those who seek to collaborate with foreign powers as traitors. Some opposition groups share this view. This has caused a rift in the diaspora-based opposition, with some rejecting foreign collaboration and others seeing it as necessary for change.
Until recently, the ruling party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), has deceived the opposition groups from seeking international support, while paradoxically engaging with the same countries it demonizes. Some in the opposition still fear the West and Ethiopia.
To understand this dynamic, we must revisit the regime’s anti-Western propaganda, which fosters mistrust by drawing on historical events.
Historical Manipulation
The regime’s narrative focuses heavily on Eritrea’s past, especially the events surrounding its federation with Ethiopia in the 1950s. The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 390A (V) of 1950 called for Eritrea’s federation with Ethiopia, a decision influenced by Cold War geopolitics and U.S. and British interests.
A famous statement by U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, often cited by the regime, argues that U.S. geopolitical interests in the Red Sea outweighed Eritrea’s desire for independence.
Dulles said, “From the point of justice, the opinions of the Eritrean people must receive consideration. Nevertheless, the strategic interest of the United States in the Red Sea basin and considerations of security and world peace make it necessary that the country be linked with our ally, Ethiopia…”
While the regime often references this statement, it is a partial quote, and the full context remains unclear. Regardless, the narration around the quote fails to capture the complex political environment of the time.
The decision to federate Eritrea with Ethiopia came without consulting the Eritrean people via a referendum, yet the regime consistently emphasizes the U.S. role in this decision, stripping it of nuance and historical context. This selective retelling ignores the diversity of viewpoints among Eritreans at the time.
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The political climate in the 1950s was complex, with various factions advocating for different paths: Some sought full independence, others favored a united Ethiopia, while others hoped Eritrea would remain under Italian or British administration.
The dominant views were calls for independence or a federal arrangement. Some Eritrean elites supported the federation with Ethiopia, believing it was a compromise between full independence and annexation. Furthermore, some leaders had pro-Ethiopian sentiments, either due to ethnic ties or economic connections.
The PFDJ has used this historical narrative to manipulate public perception, fostering fear of foreign influence and preventing international collaboration. This tactic—manufacturing external enemies and threats—is commonly used by authoritarian regimes to control society and suppress dissent.
In sum, the PFDJ regime manipulates history to maintain its grip on power by stoking fear and preventing meaningful political change, among other repressive methods.
Embracing Collaboration
Despite such efforts, a significant shift is underway. Eritrean pro-democracy movements are embracing public diplomacy and seeking collaboration with the international community, including the U.S. This marks a crucial departure from the past, recognizing that international support is vital for dismantling the regime and facilitating a democratic transition.
A notable example is the Blue Revolution movement (aka, ‘Brigade N’hamedu’), whose chapters have engaged in public diplomacy to address the transnational repression perpetuated by the Eritrean regime. One of its successes has been its persistent advocacy against this repression across borders.
Through its institutions and community associations in the diaspora, the regime has worked to silence, intimidate, and control the Eritrean diaspora, even infiltrating opposition movements, which has contributed to fractures and divisions. Additionally, Eritreans have been isolated from the political and social activities of their host countries, limiting their ability to engage in public diplomacy to highlight their struggles.
The understanding and involvement in public diplomacy and local politics is growing in Blue Revolution chapters. Beyond exposing transnational repression, its chapters and other pro-democracy movements are now engaging with lawmakers to foster collaboration and advance regime change in Eritrea. For example, the Global Yiakl Movement and National Representative Council of Eritrean Government-in-Exist have intensified lobbying efforts with U.S. decision makers.
Seeking support from the international community has become the preferred strategic move for Eritrean opposition groups to leverage global pressure, secure essential resources, and rally worldwide backing for the Eritrean people’s quest for justice.
This is not the same as inviting foreign interference, as some may perceive. Rather, diplomatic backing can amplify the opposition’s cause, showing they are not isolated but part of a broader movement for change.
Diplomacy and collaboration can also bring significant benefits: sanctions that cripple the regime’s finances and weaken its grip on power, as well as financial assistance for organizing campaigns and raising visibility for opposition groups.
Furthermore, the international community can offer training in democratic governance, human rights law, leadership, and conflict resolution, ensuring that when the regime falls capable leaders are ready to guide the country toward democracy.
Building Credibility
The international community is aware of the regime’s human rights violations and its destabilizing impact on the Horn of Africa. However, evidence alone is insufficient to secure support for regime change.
To strengthen their case, Eritrean opposition groups must focus on three critical areas:
Vision: The opposition must present a coherent vision for post-dictatorship Eritrea. While some opposition groups, like the Eritrean Dialog Group, have crafted detailed roadmaps for the country’s future, these documents must be made available and debated publicly. The vision should prioritize peaceful transition and human rights protection, drawing on international standards. Demonstrating a commitment to a smooth transition and building functioning state institutions will foster trust with neighboring countries and the international community.
Solidarity: The lack of attention to Eritrea’s plight results not only from the regime’s repressive actions but also from the absence of solidarity within the opposition. The Blue Revolution represents an emerging movement of solidarity among Eritrean opposition groups, which is crucial for gaining international recognition. By strengthening collaboration, the opposition can increase its legitimacy and influence on the global stage.
Clarity: Opposition groups must define clear and achievable goals for regime change. This includes plans for involving Eritreans inside the country, consolidating armed factions in neighboring regions, and ensuring the participation of internal forces of change within Eritrea. Strategic planning must also focus on winning the hearts and minds of the Eritrean people to maintain trust and cooperation with regional stakeholders in security and development efforts.
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Main Image: Protest by members of the UK chapter of Brigade N’Hamedu at the Netherlands Embassy in London on 1 March 2024.
While the opinions in this article are those of the author, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
I laugh 😂 at Eritreans. You guys waited a long time for regime change. Some would even say it’s too late. Many Eritreans I meet have lost connection to their country and most of their kids are completely separated. Eritrea has become a joke!
Thank you, Dr. Aron. I partially agree with your article. While the Blue Revolution has many positive aspects, there is a significant setback that hinders the struggle against the regime. Criticizing the regime’s brutality has become commonplace and requires little courage, but confronting the elite who hijack the core struggle against authoritarianism is far more crucial.
Have you ever advocated for resolving the division between BN 20 and 16? Have you ever challenged factions that prioritize identity politics over the broader fight for justice? Addressing these issues would enhance the legitimacy of your struggle.
You need to invest more energy in questioning the elite of this revolution. Who truly leads the Blue Revolution? There is no active global leadership or spokesperson—only individual YouTubers and half-hearted elites who seem more focused on undermining the values of the Eritrean people and their struggle for independence rather than genuinely advancing the cause.
Ethiopia is a vessel state, with endless manpower supply, to facilitate the politcal agenda of powerfull nations.Ethiopia is a proxy. Between 1930s to 1975, Ethiopia was financially supported by western supper powers of that Era.
Then Ethiopia was the vesel of communist agenda under Derg Regime. 1974 to 1991.
Then Ethiopia ubder TPLF was back in tje western camp, received billions in foreign aid.
2018-2025 Ethiopia ubder UAE camp again destabilising the horn of Africa. Ethiopia is the cancer of the Horn of africa whereby being a proxy of those who has money 💰
Ethiopia is the reason for the destabilised horn of Africa,
Ethiopia is not a country but an empire with no access to sea port. Ethiopia consists of three pieces of land from different nations,
Afar, djbuit and Eritrea,
Somali from somali region
Southern people from Southern sudan.
Ethiopia is a failed empire carved out by supper power to serve as a vessel state in red sea region.
This’ a good sign of enlightenment.
Leaving aside the mistake of his Majesty in dissolving the federation, in reality, we feel that Ethiopia never oppressed Eritreans in its soil. They enjoyed every sort of gov’t positions as well as made a business anywhere, east to west, north to south tips – from Isha Dewole to Assosa, Adigrat to Moyale… and they were living a better life, compared to other Ethiopians. Despite that reality, pushed by Geopolitical interests, especially from Egypt and the Arab world, all Eritreans rebels never sought struggling for democracy and prospering together; which ultimately made both nations losers.
Now democracy in Eritrea could bring collaboration and cooperation which will be help for better future of both peoples. Let God help!
Dr. Aaron always a good-read article, in-depth analysis and extensive and interesting opinion. so good job Dr aron keep
going !
I like your articles goyta.
Your article offers a thorough analysis of Eritrea’s political situation, covering both historical context and current challenges. You effectively explain the regime’s manipulation and the need for international collaboration for democratic change. The focus on unity among opposition groups is particularly compelling. Thank you for shedding light on such a complex issue and offering hope for Eritrea’s future.
Excellent article! It effectively captures both the past and the present challenges the country faces. Despite numerous efforts to eliminate the junta in Asmara, all attempts have failed due to outdated thinking. Time is running out for the people of Eritrea-action is needed now more than ever.
Thank you Aron for your insightful article.
Indeed Dr. Aron!
Very well said and job well done.
The Eritrean dictatorship, in power for over 33yrs, the strategy has always been to blame others for its own making. For survival and for means of staying in power, PFDJ has kept the Eritrean people hostage by going to war with all our neighbors:
WAR with Sudan
WAR with Ethiopia
WAR with Djibouti
WAR with Yemen
Such destabilizing regime should not have a space and a place in our world. For the sake of peace, the international community has a responsibility.