News Analysis

With a new Tigray leader in place, Amhara dispute comes into focus

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Getachew Reda’s interim administration likely to ramp up pressure over Amhara-controlled lands.

On 23 March, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appointed Getachew Reda as the head of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (IRA), marking further consolidation of the Pretoria peace deal but also a step towards Amhara and Tigray regions clashing over territory.1 According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the appointment was in accordance with Article 62 (9) of the Constitution and Proclamation No. 359/1995, Article 14 (2) (b). Article 62 (9) of the constitution gives the House of the Federation (HoF) the mandate to order federal intervention into any state that, in violation of the constitution, “endangers the constitutional order.” Proclamation No. 359/1995 allows the HoF “to decide to set up a provisional administration that is accountable to the Federal Government by suspending the State Council and the highest executive organ of the Region.”

Abiy’s move comes after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) Central Committee picked Getachew over long-time party and government leader Debretsion Gebremichael, who Abiy rejected.2Unlike most other Tigray leaders, Getachew hails from Alamata in southern Tigray, a currently Amhara-controlled area that has rarely influenced TPLF politics. Perceived domination of regional politics by central Tigray had caused resentment in Enderta, Raya, and elsewhere in southern Tigray. His appointment could thus help harmonize the center and south.

Getachew’s appointment came a day after the House of Peoples’ Representatives removed TPLF’s terrorist designation.

In his first interview, Getachew said his government’s priorities include ensuring displaced citizens return home, preparing for credible elections, ensuring economic recovery, and rehabilitating war veterans.

When formally established, the new leader’s administration is also set to make more assertive demands, including the full withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces and the return of annexed territories.3One former TPLF demand, a referendum on Tigray’s independence, appears to now be off the table. According to Redwan Hussein, the Prime Minister’s national security advisor, “the TPLF has accepted that Tigray’s independence is a mirage.” This is not surprising given TPLF’s ambivalent history on the question of secession. However, self-determination, including a referendum on secession, remains a constitutional right.

Divided Reception

TPLF and National Congress Party (Baytona) are represented in the IRA, which also includes military commanders and scholars.4It is unclear why other Tigray opposition parties are not represented in the IRA.

Kibrom Zebib Sibhatleab from Baytona is among those who’ve begun to warm up to the promotion of Getachew, who now must work to bridge the gap between TPLF leadership and the opposition parties that are not part of the IRA.5He also has the respect of the Tigrayan intelligentsia and the opposition for his acumen. Social media polls suggest a majority of Tigrayans are happy with his election. Opposition parties Salsay Weyane and Tigray Independence Party have criticized TPLF’s domination of the IRA.

Getachew formerly had a close relationship with Abiy and appears to have reconnected with his top negotiator, Redwan Hussien. His ascent implies that TPLF will keep taking pragmatic measures to try and make long-term gains, even in the face of an indignant Tigrayan public. 

General Tsadkan Gebretensae, whose inclusion in the IRA is widely expected following his recommendation by the Global Society of Tigray Scholars, is also said to endorse a sober political settlement with the federal government.

On the flip side, Getachew’s at times careless remarks have enraged many in Amhara, and, in a sign of possible trouble to come, he hails from Alamata in southern Tigray, which is currently Amhara-controlled. 

Overall, Getachew has the potential to restore Tigrayan trust in TPLF, which has faced a crisis of legitimacy following Pretoria. However, it remains to be seen how he will navigate Tigray and Ethiopia’s complex political landscape and whether he can live up to expectations.

Reclaiming Welkait

His biggest challenge is achieving the return of Welkait and southern Tigray that were annexed and, in places, cleansed of Tigrayans by Amhara during the war.6Welkait was part of Western Tigray until the outbreak of the Tigray war in 2020, when Amhara forces moved into the area alongside the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and annexed it into Amhara. Human rights organizations have documented ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans in the area by Amhara forces amid the war. Under previous regimes, the area belonged to the Gondar province, which has historically been under the influence of Amharas. Yet new evidence points to extended times in the medieval era when it was an integral part of Tigray. The EPRDF government placed Welkait, which, before the war, had a majority Tigrinya-speaking population, under the administration of the Tigray region in accordance with the ethno-linguistic reconfiguration of Ethiopia’s regions under the 1995 constitution. Amhara nationalists have bitterly protested against the constitution in general and Welkait’s inclusion in Tigray in particular.

Tigray’s top commander, Lt. General Tadesse Worede, head of the committee that established the IRA, recently said restoring them is a top priority. 

“It is not possible to make preparations for the next election while leaving about half or a quarter of the people of Tigray [out of it],” he stated.

Getachew, in his inaugural speech, insisted that Amhara-occupied lands are integral parts of Tigray and pledged to prioritize their return. 

Tigray’s border conflicts

“In the Pretoria Agreement, it was clearly stated that the territorial integrity of Tigray should be resolved in accordance with the constitution,” he stated.

The reported withdrawals in March of Ethiopian troops from Welkait has increased Amhara speculation that federal authorities will allow Tigray to retake the area.

Welkait’s uncertain fate fuels continued animosity between Tigrayans and Amharas, and also raises Tigrayan concerns.7Article 10/4 of the Pretoria agreement stipulates, “The Parties commit to resolving issues of contested areas in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.”

Specifically, some claim TPLF may use the UN investigation into war atrocities as a bargaining chip, as the federal government is eager to end it, a move that would provoke Tigrayan outrage.8The idea is that TPLF would back ending the UN probe if the federal government returns Tigray’s territory to its pre-war borders.

Regarding the probe, Getachew has merely said, “We recommend the federal government to accept the commission.”9This is a mild stance, given that Tigrayans and TPLF have been demanding investigations for the past two years.

Amhara Concerns

There is also plenty of potential for more Amhara nationalist outrage. They have expressed concern about federal-TPLF negotiations that exclude Amhara representatives.10Similarly, Ethiopianists, who have close ties to Amhara nationalism and serve as a bridge with Asmara, have voiced displeasure at the implications of the Pretoria agreement. Andargachew Tsigie, CEO of ESAT TV and closely affiliated to the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) party, for instance, has argued that the Pretoria agreement reveals western interests “to enable the TPLF to get what it wants, especially put Welkait back under TPLF rule.”

They consider Welkait a closed case. Colonel Demeke Zewdu, chairman of the Welkait-Tegede Amhara Identity Restoration Committee, has said they’ll even resist efforts to return Tigrayans who fled during the war. 

“If one million of these people come and live in Welkait, this would be giving ourselves to another disaster once again,” he stated.11Tigray TV reports that Amhara forces have recently been bringing more settlers into Western Tigray and redistributing land to them.

Amhara-aligned media, such as Zehabesha, oppose any compromise over the territories, including making them federal districts.

Shifting Alliances

The federal-TPLF rapprochement following Pretoria has the potential to influence the destiny of the contested territories.

Abiy’s enmity with TPLF and alliance with Isaias Afewerki had worked out well for Amhara nationalists, as TPLF, their historic rival, was excluded and targeted. 

Later, federal authorities looked the other way as Amhara forces, with Eritrean military support, extra-constitutionally annexed Welkait.

Now the tide may be turning. 

Considering its troubled relations with Sudan and neighboring Ethiopian regions, Welkait’s return to Tigray would mean Amhara’s isolation, deprived of a corridor to its key ally, Eritrea.12If so, the reversal of fortune between the two camps would mean Pretoria is, in effect, the antithesis of the 2019 peace deal signed in Jeddah between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Pretoria was an unwelcome surprise for Amhara politics, as it threatens to unravel the Addis-Bahir Dar-Asmara alliance.13Pretoria was the result of an inconvenient stalemate between the federal government and TPLF following a major military breakthrough by the former. A month-long multi-pronged offensive in August 2022 by the ENDF, Eritrean forces, and Amhara militants overwhelmed Tigray’s forces.

Wary of the damaging repercussions of more war in Tigray, Abiy opted to settle while retaining the upper hand.14The military setbacks that forced the Ethiopian army to withdraw from Tigray in June 2021 taught a painful lesson to Abiy’s government that seizing Mekelle was far from the end of the war.

Similarly, the humanitarian crisis and military setbacks forced TPLF to make “painful concessions” and commit to peace on federal terms. 

De-escalation Imperative

Nevertheless, Pretoria was far from the claimed “terms of surrender” for TPLF, as it contained the tools for it to claw its way back into the political arena and reassert Tigray’s interests.

While rendering TPLF militarily irrelevant, Pretoria requires the federal government to uphold Tigray’s constitutional rights; rights it subverted in its wartime dealings with Eritrea and Amhara.

Enforcing the agreement means removing Eritrean and Amhara forces from Tigray, as well as ensuring Tigray’s territorial integrity as per the constitution.15Following the Pretoria Agreement, Getachew Reda tweeted, “Hic Rhodus, Hic Salta,” a not-so-subtle dig presumably directed at his Amhara and Eritrean antagonists. The phrase, “Here is Rhodes, Jump here,” from Aesop appears to imply that TPLF believes the Pretoria Agreement would put legal handcuffs on its foes as it recognizes the territorial sovereignty of Tigray, as per the constitution. This would mean that, until Welkait and other contested territories are constitutionally resolved, they would have to come under the control of the IRA.

There is thus increasing tension between Tigrayan determination to restore its pre-war borders and Amhara resistance to giving up the territories.

Reports allege Eritrea’s support for Amhara forces aiming to resist any federally backed effort to restore Welkait.16Tigray’s new president has accused Eritrean forces of still committing abuses in Tigray. He said that western and southern Tigray, as well as Tselemti in the northwest, are under continued occupation and promised that his administration will work to restore Tigray’s territorial integrity.

The federal government must work to rebuild Tigray-Amhara ties, and try to bridge the gap between their legal, historical, and demographic claims. 

Otherwise, the situation could well devolve into another devastating conflict between Amhara and Tigray.

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Main Image: Getachew Reda at UN Media forum; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; October 24 2016; UNICEF Ethiopia, Demissew Bizuwork.

Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.

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Footnotes
  • 1
    According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the appointment was in accordance with Article 62 (9) of the Constitution and Proclamation No. 359/1995, Article 14 (2) (b). Article 62 (9) of the constitution gives the House of the Federation (HoF) the mandate to order federal intervention into any state that, in violation of the constitution, “endangers the constitutional order.” Proclamation No. 359/1995 allows the HoF “to decide to set up a provisional administration that is accountable to the Federal Government by suspending the State Council and the highest executive organ of the Region.”
  • 2
    Unlike most other Tigray leaders, Getachew hails from Alamata in southern Tigray, a currently Amhara-controlled area that has rarely influenced TPLF politics. Perceived domination of regional politics by central Tigray had caused resentment in Enderta, Raya, and elsewhere in southern Tigray. His appointment could thus help harmonize the center and south.
  • 3
    One former TPLF demand, a referendum on Tigray’s independence, appears to now be off the table. According to Redwan Hussein, the Prime Minister’s national security advisor, “the TPLF has accepted that Tigray’s independence is a mirage.” This is not surprising given TPLF’s ambivalent history on the question of secession. However, self-determination, including a referendum on secession, remains a constitutional right.
  • 4
    It is unclear why other Tigray opposition parties are not represented in the IRA.
  • 5
    He also has the respect of the Tigrayan intelligentsia and the opposition for his acumen. Social media polls suggest a majority of Tigrayans are happy with his election. Opposition parties Salsay Weyane and Tigray Independence Party have criticized TPLF’s domination of the IRA.
  • 6
    Welkait was part of Western Tigray until the outbreak of the Tigray war in 2020, when Amhara forces moved into the area alongside the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and annexed it into Amhara. Human rights organizations have documented ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans in the area by Amhara forces amid the war. Under previous regimes, the area belonged to the Gondar province, which has historically been under the influence of Amharas. Yet new evidence points to extended times in the medieval era when it was an integral part of Tigray. The EPRDF government placed Welkait, which, before the war, had a majority Tigrinya-speaking population, under the administration of the Tigray region in accordance with the ethno-linguistic reconfiguration of Ethiopia’s regions under the 1995 constitution. Amhara nationalists have bitterly protested against the constitution in general and Welkait’s inclusion in Tigray in particular.
  • 7
    Article 10/4 of the Pretoria agreement stipulates, “The Parties commit to resolving issues of contested areas in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.”
  • 8
    The idea is that TPLF would back ending the UN probe if the federal government returns Tigray’s territory to its pre-war borders.
  • 9
    This is a mild stance, given that Tigrayans and TPLF have been demanding investigations for the past two years.
  • 10
    Similarly, Ethiopianists, who have close ties to Amhara nationalism and serve as a bridge with Asmara, have voiced displeasure at the implications of the Pretoria agreement. Andargachew Tsigie, CEO of ESAT TV and closely affiliated to the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) party, for instance, has argued that the Pretoria agreement reveals western interests “to enable the TPLF to get what it wants, especially put Welkait back under TPLF rule.”
  • 11
    Tigray TV reports that Amhara forces have recently been bringing more settlers into Western Tigray and redistributing land to them.
  • 12
    If so, the reversal of fortune between the two camps would mean Pretoria is, in effect, the antithesis of the 2019 peace deal signed in Jeddah between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
  • 13
    Pretoria was the result of an inconvenient stalemate between the federal government and TPLF following a major military breakthrough by the former. A month-long multi-pronged offensive in August 2022 by the ENDF, Eritrean forces, and Amhara militants overwhelmed Tigray’s forces.
  • 14
    The military setbacks that forced the Ethiopian army to withdraw from Tigray in June 2021 taught a painful lesson to Abiy’s government that seizing Mekelle was far from the end of the war.
  • 15
    Following the Pretoria Agreement, Getachew Reda tweeted, “Hic Rhodus, Hic Salta,” a not-so-subtle dig presumably directed at his Amhara and Eritrean antagonists. The phrase, “Here is Rhodes, Jump here,” from Aesop appears to imply that TPLF believes the Pretoria Agreement would put legal handcuffs on its foes as it recognizes the territorial sovereignty of Tigray, as per the constitution. This would mean that, until Welkait and other contested territories are constitutionally resolved, they would have to come under the control of the IRA.
  • 16
    Tigray’s new president has accused Eritrean forces of still committing abuses in Tigray. He said that western and southern Tigray, as well as Tselemti in the northwest, are under continued occupation and promised that his administration will work to restore Tigray’s territorial integrity.

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Ethiopia Insight

9 Comments

  • The Amhara militants must leave from the occupied land of Tigray a.k.a Welkayt-Humera, Alamata area and Tselemt. Unless these areas are returned to the owner, it is difficult even to think about peace. Imagin millions of Tigreans are displaced from their land & they have been staying at various IDP centers of the region for more than couples of years.

  • My fellow brother and sisters , lets us come to our mind

    We are living in Ethiopia, we have a country territory bigger than the size of many countries in Europe

    Let us not make our mind limited,
    We have a right and a demand to settle, alive, bear children, died and rest our body in all part of Ethiopia.

    Ethiopian origin Ethnic radicals in foreign countries have enjoying the benefits of western liberalism,Economic freedom and the right to aliveness as a human citizen in a place where they choose to settle

    but why not for Ethiopian citizen in their own country of territory?

    Come to your mind and strengthen a greater Ethiopia which allows all citizens to have a right and a demand to settle and alive in a place called Ethiopia.

    We are in 21 century, you should make Your mind broaden

  • A wrong map. There was no Amhara or Afar regions pre 1991. This is an Amhara expansionists’ propaganda map.

  • First off all there was no Amhara Reginal or afar Reginal states pre 1991 it is Complete lie!! Read history!! It is like saying I was born before the Ethiopia constitution so it doesn’t apply to me 😁

  • Remember Wokait/Raya has always been Amhara’s ancestral land for many centuries. Tigrayan’s party TPLF conquered the land in 1991, killed ten thousands and ethnically cleansed >half a million Amharas and settled hundred thousands of Tigrayans on the land. It is sad that you have not mentioned this.
    One Evidence below
    “When the TPLF came to power, they transferred a fertile section of Amhara State (Welkait) to Tigray, renaming it “Western Tigray”, & brought in ethnic Tigrayans to displace ethnic Amharas.” (search Washington examiner’s “peace in northern ethiopia looking for the end of the rainbow” article)

    • I’ve been looking for years into this claim of 2.5 million Amhara’s missing but there is no investigation or reports about it. Please send or direct. Otherwise this is just propoganda. There were ethnic Tigrayans in Wolkait for 2oo years

    • These areas you have mentioned plus more fertile irrigable areas to the south west of Tigrai, which is currently the north west of Gonder extending from the Sudan’s border hundreds of kilometers to the east known by originally Tigrigna names such as adiarkay, abrhajira, abderafie, metemayohannes, adiremets, …; to the south extending upto alewiha, and others had never been under the adminisratin of Amhara region. They were under the forced administration of Gonder and Wello for only 31 years. 14 years during the feudal Emperor Hailesilassie regime and 17 years during the militant dictatorial Dergue regime. Never before and ever after.
      Those that are mentioned last above to have been currently under Amhara regional administration, but originally Tigra’s and now its main targate of claims, have only been under the 28 years of age Amhara regional administration. Which is for only 28 years till this moment. This is the original truth.

      • Don’t think tribally. Thank like human beings. There were ppl living in harmony and for greedy reasons everyone mainly TPLF was at a loss. ” Amharas and Tigres will benefit from coexisting together and gain more. Current bullying will more weaken everyone

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