Ethiopia’s endless constitutional chasm and authoritarian abyss

This article is part of the Analytical Reporting to Improve the Federation (ARIF) project.

Both a lack of democracy and a divisive founding document stand resolutely in the way of peace.

Amid unrelenting turmoil, the Prosperity Party government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is increasingly raising the idea of constitutional reform to mend divides and bring a lasting peace.

Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution has been a cause of division partly due to its establishment of an ethno-linguistic based state structure and the extent of autonomy—which includes a secession right—granted to ethnic communities.

This gave rise to two diverging viewpoints: ethno-nationalists argue that the system holds Ethiopia together by granting autonomy to previously violently assimilated peoples; whereas their opponents criticize it for promoting group rights at the expense of national unity and argue it is the source of today’s violent ethnic polarization.

Promisingly, a consensus exists regarding the need for constitutional amendment with even some proponents of the system calling for changes. However, finding a consensus on those alterations and the form of the Ethiopian state is extremely difficult—and made even more tricky by the prevailing political chaos. 

Nonetheless, according to Abiy’s statement to parliament on February, his administration, unlike its predecessor, accepts the legitimacy of calls for amendments and is making efforts to resolve the constitutional dilemma. (Hardly a surprise to ethnonationalist critics who accuse him of revering Ethiopia’s imperial era.)

“The presence of an attitude to accept the question by itself makes for 50 percent of the answer…Our aspiration is for opposing sides to come to a dialogue and concede to the ideas of one another, or in the absence of consensus, hold a referendum to create a constitution that can withstand administration change,” he said.

Abiy claimed that the widespread lack of acceptance of the constitution is mainly due to the non-inclusive nature of constitution-making process in the early 1990s after the downfall of the Derg regime; others would argue that it is the substance of the articles.

Constitutional concerns are particularly apparent in Amhara where, ever since the worsening of the conflict in the region in August last year, the region’s officials claim to be pursuing the amendments that their rebelling constituents demand.

Yet the dangers of reform can be seen by the opposing positions on the issue adopted by Amhara and Oromo nationalist rebels.

Overall, critics of the system— particularly Amharas, including the region’s siting President—argue the constitution is too ethnocentric and hence in need of reform to preserve a dwindling national unity; whereas supporters of the system—it is relatively popular in Oromia—see this as an attempt to water down hard-won self-rule rights.

The prospect of these opposing sides making concessions appears minimal, and in the absence of consensus the government’s chosen alternative of holding a referendum is destined to leave many unsatisfied.¹

What’s more, even if some form of constitutional amendment comes to pass, there’s a broad skepticism that it would ease the violent political divides. In fact, some politicians and experts are concerned that a mishandled amendment process could push the current violence into all-out civil war of the type that has destroyed neighboring Sudan.

Constitutional Divide

Ethiopia’s politics suffer from a twofold constitutional predicament.

On the one hand, there’s a wide and rancorous division over several critical aspects of the founding document, relating to ethnolinguistic state formation, secession rights, and balancing ethnic group rights with national interests, among others. 

On the other, many politicians and experts, see the prevailing unconstitutional governing practices as the primary source of Ethiopia’s political woes, hence in need of addressing prior to initiating constitutional amendments.

Adem Kassie, a constitutional expert from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), told Ethiopia Insight, “Ethiopia currently faces two major political challenges, the first of which is building a democracy, and secondly, reaching a consensus on what form of state the country should be.”     

Experts and politicians allege that the lack of democracy and the government’s failure to abide by the constitution means citizens are prevented from advancing their economic and political interests through peaceful means, driving many to armed struggle—though it is rare in Ethiopia to hear political actors express explicit understanding of their opponents’ grievances.

Mulatu Gemechu, a senior member of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) believes the absence of democracy to be the leading cause of political violence. “The nation’s attempt to exercise federalism in the absence of a democracy and a severe rights violation is what inevitably led to a perpetual cycle of violence, otherwise a constitutional division alone wouldn’t cause such a level of bloodshed.”

At this stage, the demands of armed groups and their supporters is more basic than a constitutional amendment. Instead, they long for the ability to elect their rulers and an end to the violation of their rights with impunity. According to Mulatu, as long as a democratic order and the rule of law are missing, any constitutional change will be futile.

Haileyesus Taye, director of the Center for Constitution and Federalism Training at the House of Federation (HoF), also considers unconstitutionality to be at the top of Ethiopia’s problems.

“The non-implementation of the constitution is the main source of political violence. For instance, the war in Amhara region is said to arise from the people’s denied equitable representation and ability to exercise their rights, yet such circumstances aren’t attributable to a fault within the constitution,” he said.²

Flawed Federalism

Conversely, there are those who regard the divisive aspect of ethnic federalism and other shortcomings of the constitution to be at the core of Ethiopia’s political disorder. They argue, constitutional amendment is equally critical as democracy and can help bring peace to the nation.

Melaku Belay, head of a legal affairs department at the opposition All Ethiopian Unity Party, sees an ethnocentric constitution with a “subjugator-subjugated” narrative as primarily responsible for the current turmoil.

He believes that unconstitutionality is partly attributable to shortcomings within the founding document: “The constitution left a gap where forces aimed at keeping the nation divided can act without accountability. People residing outside of their region are subjected to great harm as they’re considered outsiders; regional borders exist for administrative convenience, yet they’re abused to exclusively benefit singular ethnicities while keeping others away.”

Likewise, Gebru Berhe, chairman of the Ethiopian Democratic Unity Party, views the divisiveness of the constitution to have largely contributed to the prevailing instability.

Both unconstitutionality and a constitutional divide have been a centerpiece of Ethiopia’s political debate for the past three decades, yet it was following the transition of 2018 when the splits turned increasingly violent, leading to today’s political wars.

The Prosperity Party administration has an alternative view of how we got to this state. Abiy and other officials speak of “positive peace” and “negative peace”. They say their predecessor managed to maintain peace only through force and oppression while they allowed political freedom that led to decades of suppressed grievances boiling over.

With regard to armed groups in Amhara and Oromia, the government claim to have made unrelenting effort to broker peace, and depicts both as extremists.

In the February parliament session, Abiy said using violence for political means had become customary due to the violent formation of the Ethiopian state, that the culture of negotiation is diminishing, and that spoilers of peace efforts are prevalent.

The premier urged rebels in Amhara and Oromia to put down their arms and engage in peaceful struggle.³ Opponents cast doubt on this narrative, pointing to their colleagues who had been detained despite engaging only in peaceful political activity.⁴

Outlying Amhara

Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution established a federation where member states are defined along ethno-linguistic lines. The system referred to as ethnic or multinational federalism enshrined sovereign power in the so-called “Nations, Nationalities and Peoples”.

Amhara elites are largely in favor of overhauling the constitution which they see as not only divisive but also containing rhetoric that depicts Amharas as historical subjugators.

They argue such narratives are the main driving force behind the violence perpetuated against Amharas in Oromia and elsewhere.

Soon after conflict erupted in Amhara last year, the regional administration joined in the criticism of the constitution. Unprecedentedly, during a discussion panel in early February at the region’s capital, Bahir Dar, a recently appointed regional president, Arega Kebede, voiced a deepened criticism of the constitution, particularly how it undermined national identity.   

“Currently a consensus has been reached that the constitution is based upon distorted narratives. It focuses on ethnic identity instead of strengthening Ethiopian unity and contains notions which disintegrate the main umbrella that is Ethiopianism,” he said.

Though he didn’t identify them, the regional head revealed that the particular constitutional provisions which need to be amended have already been identified and discussed by the Prosperity Party and Executive Committee. “Sorting the details of the amendment will be our undertaking, which Amhara intellectuals and the region’s administration ought to contribute to.”

Still, some suspect such statements lack sincerity.     

“Such criticisms are likely politically motivated and the result of the regional administration’s attempt to appeal to the public and thereby degrade the popularity and support which fighters in the region are gaining,” said Haileyesus from the federalism center.

Likewise, OFC’s Mulatu is of the opinion that the issue of constitutional amendment is being used to distract from the lack of democracy and rule of law.

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Constitutional expert Adem thinks that the Amhara aspiration of constitutional reform may provide the Prosperity administration a justification in its bid to consolidate power under the flag of national unity.⁵

Furthermore, what used to be Amhara’s agenda is now also becoming that of many Oromo elites, for a parallel but different reason, he claimed. “If the Oromo-led central government pushes for a national unity narrative, it could partly be because it sees the current ethnocentric system to be an obstacle from expanding and solidifying the dominance of the central government—and therefore of the Oromo.”

Confident in their number and that the Oromo dominance of the center will persist, Abiy and many other ruling and non-ruling Oromo elites may wish to alter ethnic federalism to a more unitary form of government—or at least one that transfers some of the competences of “ethnic regions” to sub-regional governments—as that would grant them more control over regional administrations, suggested Adem.

Elusive Middle

Regardless of the rationales, it now seems plausible that revisions will occur, though how is by no means settled. A pathway has been set out by the Prime Minister but there’s been little discussions of the substance of amendments.

However, given the prevailing political tension in addition to polarized views on the constitution, many are skeptical if consensus can be achieved.

Bate Urgessa, a political officer of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), was recently assassinated in his hometown of Meki. Before that tragedy back in April, he told Ethiopia Insight that consensus was “nearly impossible” under current circumstances.

“On one hand there’s a substantial interest towards ultranationalism from Amhara, on the other, in Oromia there’s a strong support to exercise constitutional self-determination right to a full extent, including a considerable aspiration for secession,” he explained.

He added that ethnic self-rule is popular in Tigray, Somali region and elsewhere, so doing away with those rights would not gain sufficient regional support.

Adem, however, thinks it’s likely to see a reform towards a stronger central government occur in the near future, considering the government’s aspiration for such reform. He said the amendment could lead to changes to the preamble, protection to ethnicities residing outside of their region, criteria for establishing new regions, ethnic-based establishment of political parties, and the secession right, among others.

Nonetheless, there’s an apparent need to balance ethnic self-rule rights with national interest.  To this effect, Haileyesus sees a need to regulate self-determination: “A certain criterion needs to be introduced on the uncapped right of nations, nationalities and peoples to establish their own regions at any time. Considering the existence of 76 such groups, population size, land mass, and economic potential must be taken into account in [decisions regarding] establishing new regions.”

Haileyesus also sees a need for amending any regional constitution that depicts a single ethnicity as the owner of the region.⁶

Unity Favored

Although the government hasn’t yet disclosed what constitutional changes it aspires for, statements suggest it favors more power for the federal government vis-à-vis its regional counterparts.  Many think Abiy’s government wants to introduce a powerful, directly elected president.

Addressing Prosperity Party’s Central Committee in late January, Abiy stated: “In the past, regions were indirectly led by the center, however during an executive assessment meeting, it was raised that the complete autonomy of regions is resulting in their abuse of power, and hence some assimilation is necessary.”

He added that the nation spent the past 60 years in a cycle of oppression but what was introduced as a solution instead exacerbated the challenges.

Additionally, the premier’s aspiration for national unity as well as his integrationist philosophies “Medemer” and “Grand Narrative” have been seen by some as looming threats to ethnic self-rule rights.    

Ethiopia’s constitutional divide has grown more visible in recent years as talk of amendments has increased. Although tensions could dial down if the divide over can somehow be narrowed, a mishandled amendment could exacerbate violence.

The challenges of reaching a consensus cannot be overstated given the unwillingness to concede to one another’s interest. In the midst of an unrelenting political war, a ‘give and take’ approach doesn’t appeal. Instead, both groups at war with the state see themselves in a zero-sum existential struggle.

Many politicians therefore insist a certain level of stability should be achieved before undertaking a task of this magnitude. Currently, all attempts for peace have been abandoned by the state as well as the insurgent groups in Amhara and Oromia, meaning there is no end in sight to the instability.  

Nonetheless, officials say a controversial and struggling national dialogue is the way to reach consensus on national issues, including the constitution. But the national dialogue cannot reasonably be expected to achieve national consensus, not least because some opposition parties have boycotted and, although the commission has attempted to bring armed groups to the dialogue, it hasn’t received a positive response from the fighters.⁷

This raises the prospect of a disingenuous dialogue being used as a pretense to pass a constitutional amendment in the absence of true consensus. Ultimately, that could result in worsening an already precarious situation, sending the nation into a wider civil war.  

1. The amendment procedure under the constitution doesn’t mention a referendum, thus its constitutionality will be contested. Secondly, the binary nature of a referendum means several constituencies will perceive the result as a loss. Furthermore, a national referendum potentially contravenes the self-rule rights of minorities. ↩︎
2. Yet both Haileyesus and Mulatu acknowledge the importance of addressing the calls for constitutional amendment. ↩︎
3. In his parliamentary speech, Abiy cited the National Movement of Amhara (NaMA) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) to emphasize the viability of peaceful political struggle. However, senior members of both opposition parties have recently been imprisoned, including two members of NaMA who are elected members of parliament. Others arrested include chairman of EZEMA, Chane Kebede. Similarly, Mulatu of OFC told Ethiopia Insight, that dozens of their members and supporters are being detained without charge. ↩︎
4. In a July parliament session, an MP from the opposition NaMA, accused the government of unjustly imprisoning politicians and said MP and founding member of the party, Chiristian Tadele is suffering in prison for merely criticizing the administration.
   In response, Abiy debunked the MP’s accusation and claimed, the justice system is rather duly acting to hold the MP accountable for a wrong doing. He also accused Christian of partaking in efforts to forcefully remove the administration from power. “I personally would be happy to see him seating among yourselves and wouldn’t take an issue with that had he chosen a peaceful struggle instead of calling a march to Arat kilo.” ↩︎
5. The Amhara constitutional aspiration is to substitute an ethnocentric state with a more centralized where sovereignty lies with the people of Ethiopia as a whole. If realized, this will result in granting more authority to the central government; Adem believes that Abiy’s administration appears to be supportive of the Amhara constitutional aspiration but mainly to exploit the existing call for unity as a pretense to centralize political authority. ↩︎
6. Most regional constitutions contain provisions outlining the rights of the people of the respective national regional state. Under these provisions, the people of the region have the right to preserve their own national identity, strive towards due respect and assert their own culture, among others. ↩︎
7. Several opposition parties unconvinced of the national dialogue commission’s independence and excluding themselves from the process. With regards to armed groups, OLA denounced the commission and accused it of being a tool of power consolidation for the Prime Minister. Similarly, factions of Fano appear to reject the commission’s call for their participation, stating that the commission is merely a puppet of the administration. ↩︎
8. Based on the particular provisions or chapter to be amended, two different standards are required. Chapter three of the constitution comprises provisions concerning human and democratic rights. This chapter, and articles 104 and 105, is held to a slightly higher standard of amendment than the rest of the constitution. As per the constitution, a proposed amendment in these particular areas must be approved by a two-thirds majority vote at the HOPR and HOF as well as by a majority vote of all State Councils. On the other hand, a proposed amendment on provisions outside of chapter three and articles 104 and 105 will come to pass when the HOPR and HOF, in a joint session, approve the proposed amendment with a two-thirds majority vote and two-thirds of all State Councils approve the amendment with a majority vote. ↩︎
9. Under article 104, constitutional amendment proposals, if supported by a two-third majority in either of the Federal houses or by a simple majority in a third of state councils, will be presented for discussion and decision to the general public and those whom the amendment concerns. However, this provision doesn’t stipulate what impact the public discussion and decision will have on the amendment proposal. Moreover, article 104 states ‘those whom the amendment of the constitution concerns are also to partake in discussing and deciding on amendment proposals, yet there is no indication as to who such concerned parties might be. ↩︎
10. According to the prosperity administration, the dialogue is expected to bring the varying constitutional views to the table and strike a consensus-based middle ground. ↩︎
11. Accordingly, two separate constitutional amendment routes are being provided; the state presents the national dialogue as a means to establish consensus on particular constitutional amendment questions as a primary option, meanwhile it also reserves the referendum route as a final recourse to constitutional matters that prove too divisive to find a consensus for through the national dialogue. ↩︎
12. The national dialogue commission is mandated to facilitate dialoged forums and submit the findings it collects from discussion panels to the concerned government bodies; however, the implementation of such findings is ultimately left to the government’s discretion. So far Abiy or other officials who commented on constitutional amendment are yet to discuss the process to be followed in implementing any supposed consensus regarding constitutional amendment. ↩︎
13. The Ethiopian population is highly diverse with over 80 ethnicities, governed under 12 regional governments and two city administrations. Crucially, there’s a great disproportionality between the numbers of ethnicities, and notably the two ethnic groups, Oromo and Amhara together makes up over 60 percent of the nation’s population. Hence, constitutional amendment through a referendum is all likely to appear as a threatening prospect to those belonging to less populus ethnic groups. The referendum alternative, at least in theory, enables constitutional amendments to be passed solely with the support of the two most populous regions regardless of any concerted effort to the contrary from the remaining ten regions. ↩︎
14. Melaku, who was a member of the constitution drafting committee, believes that no more than 18,000 Ethiopians were consulted during the making of the constitution, which he says was insufficient considering the nation had a population of over eighty million at the time. ↩︎

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