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How evolving international law exposes a failing state
The Peace of Westphalia in 1648 ushered in the modern state system, later codified in legal terms by the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States. The Convention outlines four essential criteria for statehood: a defined territory, a permanent population, an effective government, and the capacity to enter into international relations. While these legal standards remain the foundation for recognizing statehood, political recognition by other states has also become a de facto fifth requirement.
Ethiopia, despite unresolved border disputes, satisfies the legal conditions for statehood. It possesses a defined territory, a population exceeding 120 million, and a history of engaging in international relations through various governmental regimes.
However, fulfilling these formal criteria does not immunize a state from collapse. Ethiopia is now facing a growing crisis of governance that calls into question its continued ability to function as a state under international law.
Control Crisis
The central government’s inability to exert effective control in key regions—especially Amhara and Oromia—has resulted in an escalating breakdown of order. Frequent reports of anarchy, extrajudicial violence, and administrative paralysis indicate a descent into state failure.
According to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International reports, the Ethiopian government has not only lost its monopoly on violence in many areas but has also been implicated in widespread human rights violations.
Among the Montevideo criteria, the requirement for an “effective government” is paramount. Historically, the Tinoco Arbitration Case illustrated that even authoritarian regimes can fulfill this requirement through mere control.
Yet, international law has since evolved. Modern interpretations stress that effective governance must go beyond administrative control—it must include adherence to international human rights standards.
Indexing Failure
Post-World War II legal developments, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the core UN covenants, have shifted expectations. A state that cannot protect its citizens from mass atrocities or, worse, is complicit in them, risks losing legitimacy.
Control without accountability is no longer sufficient. A government’s effectiveness must now include normative obligations: to protect citizens from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing.
Ethiopia’s government effectiveness percentile in 2023 stood at only 24 percent, and it ranks 12th on the Fragile State Index with a score of 98.1—indicators of its weakening institutional capacity and increasing risk of failure. The loss of territorial control, rising ethnic conflict, and the erosion of human rights point to a government that no longer meets the modern threshold of effectiveness.
Philosophical Legitimacy
The philosophical foundation for modern statehood lies in the social contract theory articulated by Hobbes and Locke. Hobbes argued that government exists to prevent the chaos of the state of nature, providing order and security in exchange for citizens’ obedience.
Locke expanded this, emphasizing the protection of individual rights as a condition for legitimate governance. When a government violates this contract—by allowing lawlessness or abusing its citizens—it forfeits its legitimacy.
These Enlightenment principles are echoed in international legal frameworks like the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which imposes both positive and negative obligations on states: to protect fundamental rights and to refrain from violating them. Ethiopia, while a signatory to these instruments, has consistently failed to meet these obligations in practice.
Rights Crisis
A report from a joint investigation by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the UN Human Rights Office on the northern armed conflict paints a damning picture. Their 2021 findings show that all major parties to the conflict—the Ethiopian National Defense Force, the Amhara Special Forces, Fano, and the Tigrayan Special Forces—committed egregious human rights violations. These included extrajudicial executions, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, and the enforced displacement of civilians.
Amnesty International highlighted the use of indiscriminate drone attacks in Merawi, labeling them as war crimes. Violent clashes have been rampant, particularly in Amhara, with human rights organizations documenting atrocities committed both by government forces and by the state’s failure to protect citizens from militia groups.
In the face of such brutality, Ethiopia’s government has not only failed to maintain control but has abdicated its core responsibility: protecting its people from violence. By any modern interpretation of statehood, when a government fails to uphold fundamental human rights, it crosses into the realm of state failure.
Declining Legitimacy
The civil conflict between the TPLF and the central government, followed by the dismantling of regional security structures and violent crackdowns in Amhara, has deepened the crisis. The government’s decision to disband the region’s special forces and centralize power sparked further resistance, pushing Ethiopia closer to a Hobbesian state of nature.
The renewed conflict led to the deaths of thousands of civilians and fighters. As the violence dragged drone strikes in Gojjam on 23 April claimed the lives of over 100 civilians. Citizens lost their right to peace and security; freedom of movement was curtailed, and daily life came to a standstill.
Public trust has eroded, and state institutions are increasingly seen as agents of repression rather than protectors of rights.
Averting Collapse
Ethiopia may still meet the formal criteria of statehood under the Montevideo Convention, but it is failing the evolving, substantive standard of effective governance. A government that loses control, enables or commits atrocities, and fails to uphold basic human rights cannot be considered effective under modern international law.
Ethiopia’s trajectory illustrates a deepening statehood dilemma: the legal title of statehood persists, but the functional substance required to sustain it is eroding rapidly.
Without a renewed commitment to human rights and institutional reform, Ethiopia risks collapsing into a failed state in both theory and practice.
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While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.
Main photo: 47th Anniversary of the Establishment of the Western Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, May 2025, Nekemte, Ethiopia.
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
This is the original sin of elites such as this author. The problem they have with Tigray at the heart of everything.
He equates crimes committed by Tigray
forces (TDF) with Joint Amhara, ENDF & Republic of Eritrean forces. An identity of such authors, I learned it the past 5 yrs of TigrayGrnocide, never mention the number one crime that Amhara’s all institutions (religion, politics, Civil sties.. ) heartily supported treasonous & genocidal campaign against Tigray.
The number one crime, if we are not in the medieval times, is inviting Eritrean et al forces to destroy Tigray (people, heritage, territory) & stock civil war in Ethiopia.
The problem is not the pee pee parti government rather the treason encultured elite in Ethiopia.
Period.
Journalism became a better means of income, for Ethiopia insight
We’ve been hearing about “Ethiopia on the Brink” for decades now. Ethiopia is still chugging along despite enormous challenges. The problem is each disgruntled group wishes Ethiopia will descend into chaos. The two writers above are, obviously, sympathetic to Fano. Tplf and Olf cadres used the same tactic.
You have presented the current state of Ethiopia to the readers very well. I would like to see you present something similar to this to the readers.
The responsibility lies on both sides which are the government and the people too but to see this situation in this lovely country and lovely people is very hurtful 💔 😢
Insurrection has always been the reality in Ethiopia since its creation. But , this time the actors are more sophisticated
. Having said that the notion that Ethiopia on the brink .. by this article is incorrect and misleading. Also the article lacks the fact on the ground. People had enough of the war . Unfortunately there are some part of the society benefit from the conflicts . In my opinion the biggest challenge for Ethiopia is poverty, inequality and high youth unemployment. Unfortunately the news medias are not interested to create awareness about these issues . Because their audience are not interested with this types of news . Also most of these information propagated by diaspora who are neither citizen nor have legal right to decide the fate of the citizens of that country. This like someone trying to elect representatives on your behalf or decide who will be the next president on your behalf .That why many of these information feeds by people who left the country years ago and never be on the ground. Hope that will change as young Ethiopian understand who has the right to determine the fate of the country particularly in legal terms . And stand against the madness and tumultuous war mongers.
It’s shallow and biased analysis. While atrocities has been committed in several parts of the country particularly in almost all parts of Oromia, you just emphasized the atrocities in Amhara alone. Actually I didn’t expect more than this as you only advocate for Amhara. I would have eager to read a professional, unbiased and humane analysis, however/unfortunately it turns out that your agenda is to emphasize the problems in Amhara not for other parts of the country. Its a pitty to see a person reaching this level of education and international experience still selectively neglect the whole countries people. Sad
This people are anti government internal parasites who are anti ethnicities , this two authors are anti government who support one region call Amhara , from out of 82 ethnicities this is an enemy of the the government, all Ethiopian peoples support the current government except one ethnic (Amhara) .
Ethiopia today needs a regime change by democratic election for the first time this process will give a great chance for the people to select it’s leader this time I will be the election board committee please contact me for more discussion
Keep Up the Great Work, Gentlemen
Keep THRIVING
Excellent analysis and alarming reality.
I wish you had included some highlights regarding the root causes that led to the current situation. You seemed to assert the triggering events as causes of the serious situation Ethiopia is pausing. Otherwis, you are only reporting back the reality that everyone knows. Please focus on the root causes so it will help people understand or engage in dialogue towards solutions and healing.
Ethiopia’s problem did not start in Tigray war or on current war in Amhara region.
Ethnic federalism doesn’t work & has never worked
Ethiopia was a state before 1648. Europe is not God. God created Ethiopia, and God like Ethiopia is older than Europe.
Thank you for enlightening us about status of Ethiopia and its government through evidence and theory.
It is timely work. Keep it up