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Independence without civil liberties is like starting a new nation in a prison—ask Eritreans and South Sudanese
The idea of Tigray’s independence—once whispered, now shouted—is rapidly becoming one of the most polarizing questions facing Tigrayans. The recent emergence of The Voice for Independent Tigray (VIT), a diaspora advocacy group, has thrown fuel onto already simmering debates.
On 31 May, the group issued a declaration during a public online meeting, making independence its central demand. Since then, social media has lit up with heated exchanges, and public forums—such as those hosted by the Brakhe Show—have brought the topic into the political mainstream.
But as voices grow louder, clarity becomes scarcer. Behind the emotional calls for statehood lies a harder question: what kind of independence are we actually pursuing?
Let me be clear: I don’t oppose the right to self-determination. Every people deserves the right to shape its destiny—whether through autonomy, federalism, or full sovereignty. But that right must rest on democratic foundations. Without democracy, even the most noble cause can curdle into something hollow—or worse, oppressive.
Freedom Requires More
When we talk about independence, we often picture flags, anthems, borders—symbols of sovereignty. But these are only surface markers. Real independence runs deeper. It is about a people’s ability to govern themselves freely, fairly, and with dignity.
This deeper version of independence is what political theorists call positive sovereignty—not just freedom from external control, but the presence of internal self-rule, rooted in democratic norms and accountable governance.
Under this lens, a country without freedom of speech, fair elections, or independent institutions is not truly independent. Its people may no longer be ruled from afar—but they remain captives, only now of their own.
No Shortcut to Democracy
Some argue democracy can come later—that sovereignty should come first, and the rest will follow. This is not just wrong; it’s dangerous. You cannot build a free society on undemocratic foundations. A state born without consensus, inclusion, or transparency is unlikely to develop these traits later. And once independence is achieved, the tools to course-correct often disappear.
We’ve seen this play out. Eritrea and South Sudan both emerged from brutal wars of liberation. Their struggles were heroic, their hopes real. But what came next? In Eritrea, one of the world’s most repressive regimes took root.
In South Sudan, the dream collapsed into a nightmarish civil war. In both cases, independence came before political reform. And in both, many citizens—who once risked everything for freedom—are now fleeing their own governments.
Sovereignty alone did not protect them. A flag was not enough.
Even the act of declaring independence—say, through a referendum—demands legitimacy. Without a functioning democracy, a vote on self-determination risks becoming a power grab, not a true expression of the people’s will.
Trauma vs. Strategy
There’s a deeply understandable sentiment in Tigray that independence is owed to us. That after genocide and betrayal, breaking away is the only moral response. But we must separate trauma from strategy.
Yes, the crimes committed against Tigray were horrific. But our ultimate goal must be to prevent them from happening again. And independence alone is not a guarantee of safety.
What protects people from genocide is not merely sovereignty—it is governance. Strong institutions, inclusion, rule of law. Without these, even newly formed states can fall into chaos or repeat past horrors.
South Sudan is proof. Despite its hard-won independence, its people remain at risk from their own state. If we in Tigray do not prepare the foundations of good governance now, we risk trading one form of vulnerability for another.
Internal Fractures
As it stands, Tigray is not ready for true independence. This isn’t because the goal is misguided, but because the conditions are not there.
Our political elite are deeply fragmented. There is no unified vision or shared roadmap. Factions undermine each other rather than seek compromise. No one has the authority—or perhaps the courage—to bring all sides to the table.
Meanwhile, democratic culture is weakening. Those who challenge the dominant narrative are met not with debate, but with smear campaigns, threats, and blackmail. In this climate, disagreement becomes betrayal.
Regionalism within Tigray is also rising. If we cannot forge a unified political identity now, how will we build a functional state tomorrow? And at the grassroots level, local communities still lack the power to elect leaders, set priorities, and hold anyone accountable.
Self-determination begins locally. If we cannot practice democracy in our weredas, we cannot claim to practice it as a nation.
Cost of Secession
Secession is not cheap. It comes with steep political, economic, and even military costs. Trade routes must be reestablished, institutions built from scratch, and diplomatic recognition sought from a skeptical international community.
If we are to bear these costs, the outcome must be more than symbolic. It must bring genuine transformation. As political scientist Michael Keating puts it: “Secession is not just a right to exit—it is a responsibility to govern.”
We cannot afford to leap into statehood out of desperation, only to wake up under a new authoritarianism, and with no external enemy to blame.
If we seek inspiration, let us look to Somaliland, which focused on building democratic institutions through consensus, elections, and dialogue. Somaliland’s attention to internal governance and state building demonstrates that democracy can be a foundation for de facto sovereignty and long-term stability.
It remains unrecognized by most of the world. But it functions, governs, and earns respect through its internal legitimacy. Is it perfect? No. But it shows what is possible when independence is treated as a long-term project rooted in the will of the people.
The Way Forward
Tigray needs healing. It needs reform, dialogue, and democracy—not as slogans, but as daily practice. Independence must be the result of this transformation, not a shortcut around it.
Let’s not confuse sovereignty with liberation. A border does not make a nation. Values, institutions, and collective purpose do.
If we truly believe in self-determination, let’s begin exercising it now. In every town, every village, every political process. Let the people speak—and be heard.
Only then can we raise a flag not just as a symbol, but as a promise: that this time, independence will mean freedom—not from others, but for ourselves.
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While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.
Main photo: Tigray security forces stand in formation, bearing the Tigray flag. Source.
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
Unfortunately, that was the exact mistake of Getachew Reda, Tsadkan, et al. What comes first? Existence or democracy? I think the main focus of Tigrayans should be to exist as people, society. Everything else is secondary. You can’t have a democracy where an existential threat is looming! And you can’t exist as people if territorial integrity is not ensured and cultural cleansing is not permanently eradicated. So, let us come together to discuss where Tigrayans should focus in the short term, longer term, etc.
democratic discussion has been going for years thanks to the social media. what we have learned so far over the years since the conclusion of Pretoria Peace Agreement is the dominant party in Tigray has been highly secretive carried over from the armed struggle days. democracy is essential for resolving political differences in Tigray.
My people died because of lack of knowledge, they did not want to listen. The Bible says.
Secession is a nightmare impossible
South Sudan was a British colony joined with north Sudan in 1947. And gone in 2011 based on 1947 British the British administration of south Sudan eventhogh it has intentionally created time bombs.
Be Human
Yes freedom requires more than just asking for it. There is a reason for asking! mother of Tigray, young women and men who were doctors and engineers pick guns to fight those backward criminals who come to gang rape the innocent Tigrians. Tigrians have been called all names that we can think of just to make sure Ethiopian people throw stones at them. If this didn’t lead to bringing a peaceful and legitimate question of self determination then what can be? They better live in peaceful lives than bleeding forever. They can live and work hard in their land if all the historical territories are restored by self determination. The point is having democracy alone won’t bring any peace and prosperity unless identity is restored and respected.
Their is no single country that is secessed from the mother country , south Sudan you mentioned was once a British colony and joined with north Sudan in 1947 , the case of Eritrea is the same , but what is the difference was , Ethiopia and Italy agreed Eritrea to be part of Ethiopia whenever , after
Italy leave Eritrea. These was the reason Eritrea joined with Ethiopia in 1952 in the name of Federation , while You Tigray province had been part of Ethiopia and will continue.
The bad news was TpLF , established a narrative of separation part since 1970s as kurdistan of pkk.
Pkk finally gave up understanding that no more helpful for Kurd.
But. Today You created the new style called Genocide.
this don’t work .
Know, you don’t have people whom die for Your narrative, live the people whom once Christian dedicated for spiritual moral and hard working
The logical sequence is this: secession comes before democracy, because you need a defined border and sovereign territory to govern. Then comes the idea of democracy, the institutions needed for governance and the rule of law. Eritrea succeeded in secession but failed in democracy, because of Isaias’ emphasis on militarism for his idea of Eritrea’s security. For economic improvement, Eritrea needed trade and commerce mainly with Ethiopia. But that was not to be, because the secession had left Ethiopia with a strong sense of resentment.
Democracy in South Sudan is a failure because of the ethnic intolerance between the Dinka and Nuer. The war on Tigray also included ethnic hostility Amhara against Tigray. On the other hand, Somaliland has been able to flourish because of the advantages of geography, far away from Mogadishu, and Somalia is more or less a failed state unable to control Somaliland.
Tigray secession may sound desirable after what has happened, but it is impractical and unattainable, because of the disadvantages of geography and a siege. After the war, Tigray is essentially a captive region. The thought of giving up TPLF as a political party is painful, but it becomes even more distasteful to think that PP might impose itself on the people of Tigray.
So, for Tigray the issue is not secession, but survival. Getachew Reda, a brilliant spokesman for Tigray during its dark days of the war, is now working for Abiy. Whether Getachew can persuade Abiy to provide resources for Tigray to rebuild, and to arrange for the displaced people to return to their homes is doubtful. Because that would require an unlikely scenario, for Abiy to use force against Amharas who supported him during the war, to make them leave the towns and villages where they did all the ethnic cleansing, and resettle the displaced Tigray people back in their homes.
Rotten politics of 21 century
Cessationist movement is a movement created by western imperialist, they belive, it becomes a time Bomb in Eastetn Africa. But can’t achive their goal. a good example is ;The kurdistan of pkk in middle east which served as a time bomb since 1970s
The western imperialist belived east Africa to be the next time bombs.
Disgraceful Humanity
What does it mean secession?
Who was introduced?
Why was introduced?
What is the world’s view of secession?
The term secession is first introduced by the sovet constitution of 1921.
In 1921, after the Russian socialist Revolution, writers introduced the new narrative called union.
In 1918 the first world war ended and empire broken out
and small independent countries existed. The same time, These countries wanted a united States to protect themselves from western impralisum and from the future war (,The second world war.)
So that, they introduced secession. Meaning, That, let us united know and we will go whenever we want. So that in 1921 4 independent countries, Russia, Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine united and formed a new USSR. Later other 11 countries joined the soviet union
Hawever, after 69 years of togetherness
They ended with separation. and all goes to their previous boundaries. It was peaceful becouse they come with boundaries and they gone with their Owen boundaries
But what about for sovereign States like Ethiopia or kenya or saudi arebia or Egypt……..no it is ridiculous. But Ethnic based polician benafieted from it and keeps it.
The highest stage of stupidly .
yes, but be it advocating for independence or federation, every Tigrayan should be conscious of things-local fuctionalism being installed by the PP. Today, Abiy forges one party of one wereda, tomorrow another two, the other day ten. We do not have to be that passive reciepients of ….and say it is democracy. I do not mean it is forbidden to have a party affiliates to a parish or wereda! But Tigray now is a play ground! We have to have some big no no nos. We do not have to cuddle people who compromises the national and survival interests of Tigray and its people. Some elites are working with and for Abiy to help the people of Tigray put into a forever submission. If pp controls Tigray in the absence of TDF and TPLF, it will be a submission forever.
Second, I do not think we have to place democracy first then independence. May be liberation (of all sorts) then independence. We can not postpone the quest for independence until we became as democrats as US is. I would even argue that the reason we have no democracy is because we are part of a treasonous and the ugliest empire. To exercise democracy, you need time and setting. That setting is sovereign territory.
It is in my nightmare there is a conspiracy to dismantle tplf and tdf without any guarrante while Tigray remains under the genocidal occupation and IDPs and refugees are languishing in camps. I hope this is already aborted! This is not democracy dictatorship bla bla. Some zero consciousness elites of Tigray are, as advised from PP, becoming enterpreneurs of hot potato politics so that Tigray’s attention should be diverted (from the top agenda) and poison the minds of the people.
When it comes to the value and significance of an intact tplf as an organization, the PPs are more aware than some tigrayan elites. I swear. I learned this. The truth still remains in the hands of the tplf, surprising.
The elites I watch on Tigray medias, advocating for independence are the perfect loyals of the nation, unwavering. I love them.
One laughing stock, some elites who were in the TIP seems to drop their quest for independence bcs they are disgrantled by what TDF intervened….
”እምበኣር እንድሕር ሕዚ ዘይተመቸኹምኒ ሀገር ኮይና እውን ኣይተቅስኑናን ስለዙይ ምቅጫሩ ናብ ምባል ናይ ሕንጦ ፖለቲካ ዝኣተው ውን አለው::”
So, independence is independence! People raise bad examples: Eritrea and south Sudan. Yes, we share east African geography.