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A fractured TPLF is seeking refuge with old foes
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has splintered, with one faction seeking sanctuary from Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki and another turning to Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Relying on these authoritarian leaders to resolve Tigray’s crisis is misguided.
Expecting peace from them is like planting poison and hoping for medicine. Their records show self-interest, not concern for Tigray. Their involvement risks further instability for the region and its people.
On 9 July 2018, Isaias and Abiy signed a peace agreement, celebrated as an end to the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict. But instead of reconciliation, it served as a coordinated effort to isolate and weaken the TPLF. Isaias saw it as a chance for revenge; Abiy, as a means to stabilize his fragile rule.
The deal’s deeper purpose was largely overlooked: it wasn’t a genuine commitment to peace, but a strategic alignment against a common adversary.
Isaias’ Vendetta
Isaias’s focus was never peace but the dismantling of the TPLF, driven by a long-standing vendetta. A key turning point was a 2018 meeting between Eritrea’s Minister of Information, Yemane G. Meskel, and Ethiopian opposition figure Andargachew Tsige, as detailed in Tom Gardner’s The Abiy Project. After being released from prison during Abiy’s reforms, Andargachew relayed Abiy’s rift with the TPLF, giving Isaias the confidence to align with Ethiopia’s new leadership.
Despite earlier TPLF outreach, Isaias remained unyielding until Abiy emerged. His subsequent behavior—publicly belittling the TPLF—revealed his true aim: using the peace accord as a tool for revenge, not regional stability.
Abiy, raised within the TPLF’s ethnic-based political system, later turned against it—much like a creation rebelling against its maker. He exploited the ethnic federal constitution, crafted by the TPLF, to consolidate power. By rallying their rivals, particularly the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), Abiy secured a power base.
On 1 December 2019, he dissolved the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and formed the Prosperity Party (PP). While presented as empowering regional allies, the move enabled OPDO to secure the premiership under the majority-rule framework, sidelining Tigrayans as a numerical minority. His early rhetoric of forgiveness and love masked hate propaganda, exploiting anti-TPLF sentiment to bolster his regime and cement his authority.
TPLF’s Miscalculations
The TPLF’s advocacy for Ethiopia’s ethnic constitution was a strategic blunder. Designed to cement their control, it assumed perpetual power and failed to anticipate long-term consequences. The system empowered larger groups, indirectly sidelining the Tigrayans from national leadership and fueling resentment among other groups.
After suffering losses in the 2005 elections, the TPLF expanded the EPRDF by favoring the OPDO to counterbalance perceived threats from Amhara and Ethiopian nationalists. This move backfired, strengthening OPDO and paving Abiy’s path to power. Meanwhile, the TPLF’s strategy of limiting Tigrayan recruitment to preserve regional control deepened its isolation.
The party’s failure to address internal dissent and its inability to foresee the constitutional system’s future impact left Tigray politically exposed.
Ethnic Fallout
Abiy’s rise fueled anti-TPLF sentiment, often wrongly extending to all Tigrayans. This misconception—that all Tigrayans support the TPLF—was exploited by figures like artist Tedros Teshome, who once courted the TPLF but later vilified Tigrayans to gain favor with Abiy, even testifying against them to Californian senator Karen Bass in 2021.
The TPLF’s own missteps—marginalizing dissenters and tolerating attacks on opposition—deepened the stigma. When war erupted in November 2020, dehumanizing Tigrayans became a tactic to align with Abiy’s regime.
The Ethiopian opposition’s failure to engage Tigrayan dissenters further coarsened relations. Tigrayan elites’ reluctance to dialogue with other groups, particularly Amharas, over disputes like Wolkait—where both sides claim historical rights and report displacements—hinders solutions.
The TPLF’s relocation of Tigrayans to Western Tigray and Amhara claims of prior ownership demand compromise. Greed over land ownership fuels conflict, whereas mutual benefit could serve residents, including those from distant regions like Moyale.
Missed Opportunities
The TPLF bears significant responsibility for Tigray’s plight. While claiming to represent Tigrayans, it often prioritized control over unity, alienating other ethnic groups and failing to foster a harmonious society.
Public backlash against the TPLF’s misguided policies often crossed party lines, morphing into broader hostility that unfairly targeted Tigrayans as a group. However, the belief among some Tigrayan elites in a monolithic, nationwide anti-Tigrayan sentiment is misguided. Hatred and goodwill coexist across all Ethiopian communities.
More importantly, while secession remains popular among segments of the Tigrayan opposition, it offers no sustainable solution. A more enduring path lies in a collective effort to confront and reform the systemic flaws that have fueled grievance and division across the country.
Dialogue with Amharas and others is essential. Many Amhara activists believe Abiy exploits their rift with Tigrayans—a view shared by some Oromo politicians. Compromise over contested areas is key to forging peaceful coexistence.
Regional Risks
Collaborating with Isaias or Abiy risks reigniting conflict in Tigray. The 2018 peace deal initially sparked optimism, with public celebrations and speeches—such as Isaias’s at Addis Ababa’s Millennium Hall on 14 July 2018. But Eritrea’s sudden border closure in 2019 revealed the shallow roots of the accord.
An elderly man’s words in 2000, after Ethiopia’s victory in the border war, proved prophetic: citizens cheer as rulers dictate. Today, one TPLF faction once again seeks Isaias’s support, seemingly nostalgic for old alliances, while another has aligned itself with Abiy. Yet both leaders remain focused on their own survival—Isaias on preserving his regime, Abiy on consolidating his dominance—not on the well-being of Tigray.
In fragile states like Ethiopia and Eritrea, where institutions are weak, commoners’ fates lie in rulers’ hands, and the 2018 ecstasy was short-lived.
A sustainable future demands youth-led coalitions, inclusive governance, and a deliberate move away from ethnic patronage politics. Dialogue, compromise, and grassroots engagement—rather than reliance on authoritarian allies—offer the only real path to stability.
With sufficient will and resources, coexistence is possible. Tigray must not sacrifice its future to survive its present.
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While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.
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A well balanced article. Yes, grass root alliance of different communities pave ways for dialogue and eventually peace.
About the author putting the burden of ethnic politics on TPLF. I suggest that the author read (or re-read) Wallelign’s seminal writing “On the Question of Nationalities” to have a better grasp of the political evolution that occurred. TPLF did not impose ethnic federalism in Ethiopia; it was the political consensus, the political settlement, favored by the various liberation movements. TPLF did not go to Addis to rule Ethiopia, TPLF was in Addis and committed to save Ethiopia, by formulating a political solution needed to stabilize the country that was left in a vacuum after the Derg collapsed.
Tigray’s relations with Ethiopia and Eritrea. Secession is not an option. Tigray’s survival and future lies with Ethiopia. But that also depends on Abiy and if he has any willingness to undo the damage of the war he imposed on Tigray. That means provide resources for Tigray to rebuild, and to return displaced people back to the homes and towns they were terrorized and forced to leave.
It would be unwise for Tigray to have relations with Eritrea on a political level, when Ethiopia and Eritrea relations at the moment has become tense because of Assab. An issue that would be complicated further because Eritrea would seek support from Egypt to defend Assab. In any case, Tigray relations with Eritrea in that peaceful and harmless form of people to people connections around the border towns is a natural and desirable thing to see.
I think Tigray would receive the support it needs from the federal govt; however, TPLF would need to be fully disarmed and the Tigrayan people should be allowed to select new leaders/representatives. Peace is what moves this country forward and insurgency will bring death and despair to the innocent. TPLF has shown that the party is more important than the people.